Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury odds, prediction: 2022 WNBA picks, best bets for May 21 from confirmed experts


The Phoenix Mercury will be hoping for the third time charm Saturday afternoon when they visit the Las Vegas Aces for a WNBA game at Michelob Ultra Arena. The Aces (5-1) have beaten the Mercurys (2-3) twice in the first two weeks of the WNBA season, including an 86-74 victory on Tuesday night. The star-studded Mercury also suffered a 94-84 loss to the Dallas Wings on Thursday, but they are among the most successful teams in the league. Las Vegas is the best offensive team in the WNBA, and it followed up its home win over the Mercury with a 93-87 win over the Minnesota Lynx on Thursday night.

Tipoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET in Las Vegas. Las Vegas is the eight-point favorite in Caesars Sportsbook’s latest Mercury vs. Aces odds, and the plus-under for total points scored is 170. Before making Aces vs. Mercury picks, be sure to see WNBA predictions and betting tips from women’s basketball experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai.

Barzilai holds a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded, a groundbreaking website that uncovers information about women’s soccer. Wetzel, the site’s primary betting writer, incorporates her mathematical background and solid knowledge of women’s hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into choice.

Now, Barzilai and Wetzel have turned their attention to the WNBA after going 590-430 overall (+127.40 units, +13.6%) in the 2021-22 women’s college basketball season. They also knocked out two of their three picks on WNBA Opening Night. Everyone who followed them saw huge returns.

Now they’ve set their sights on Mercury vs. Aces, and have just locked in his WNBA picks and predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to see their picks. Now, here are several WNBA odds and betting lines for Aces vs. Mercury:

  • Mercury versus As spread: As -8
  • Mercury vs. As over-under: 170 points
  • Silverline Mercury vs. Aces: Phoenix +285, Las Vegas -360
  • Mercury vs. Aces Tickets: See tickets on StubHub
  • Mercury: Tina Charles led the league in scoring last season (23.4 points per game).
  • Ace: A’ja Wilson leads the WNBA with three blocked shots per game.

Why Aces Can Cover

Las Vegas was the best and most successful team in the WNBA last season, and it has continued. The Aces are scoring 90.3 points per game and shooting 47.5 percent from the field. Their only loss so far is an 89-76 loss to the Washington Mystics, when they lost the turnover battle 16-9. They average 13.3 per game, but their scoring covered that. Former Notre Dame star Jackie Young raised his average to 19.2 per game after scoring 25 goals Thursday night.

Dearica Hamby leads the league in rebounds with 11 rebounds per game and scores 14.3 points. Kelsey Plum led all five starters by double digits with 20 points on 4-on-8 3-pointers in the last meeting with the Mercury. Las Vegas shot nearly 47%, and he shot 58.2% from the field and 52.4 from long range in a 106-88 win over Phoenix in the season opener. Plum is averaging 17.3 points and 5.8 assists, while A’ja Wilson is averaging 15.5 points and adding 10.5 rebounds.

Why Mercury Can Cover

Phoenix has the knack to dominate and is scoring 82.4 points per game, third in the WNBA. But he sometimes struggled to use Diamond Deshields and Tina Charles to full effect. Diana Taurasi continues to provide leadership at 39, and Skylar Diggins-Smith is also a talented veteran. Taurasi is the top scorer with 17.4 points per game after scoring 31 in Thursday’s loss, and Diggins-Smith is averaging 17 points. Both players have 9.1 assists.

The Mercurys commit the fewest turnovers in the WNBA, and if they can chill the Aces shooters, they can compete. They’re giving up 85.4 points per game, third in the league, but Shey Peddy (1.4 steals per game) and Diggins-Smith are causing problems for ballhandlers. Aces are sensitive to turnovers, so they should be able to create an advantage there. Peddy is averaging 10.8 points and 3.8 assists, while Charles is averaging 15.5 points and grabbing 8.8 rebounds.

How to Make Mercury vs. Ace Picks

Barzilai and Wetzel took a close look at Saturday’s Ace versus Mercury game from every angle, and they’re leaning into the total and have solid play on one side. You can only get the pick on SportsLine.

So who wins the Mercury vs. Aces WNBA game on Saturday afternoon? And which side of the spread is a must-have? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Aces vs. Mercury game will be back on Saturday, all pundits who crushed their women’s college basketball picks.


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